The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman

Summary

I'm not entirely sure how to summarize this book. Writing it must have been a massive undertaking.

The author, George Friedman, is a professional forecaster. He is the founder of STRATFOR--a private firm that specializes in intelligence gathering and forecasting--so when it comes to geopolitics, this guy knows his stuff.

And geopolitics is what this book is all about. It begins by identifying the trends in modern human history (and by modern, I mean the past five hundred or so years). And most of this book is occupied with trends in history.

First, Friedman identifies a particular trend or set of trends and briefly explains how they shaped the recent past and the present. Then he explains how these trends will shape the future in several different scenarios. Lastly, he explains why one of these scenarios seems most likely to him.

He separates the future into decades, each with its own crisis and solution.

What I liked

This book is extremely imaginative. And imagination always scores big points with me. By imaginative, I don't mean that it is fanciful or fantastical, I just mean that it requires a good bit of imagination to do what Friedman does so well in this book: expect the unexpected. His predictions are not unlikely, but they are surprising.

Also imaginative are his predictions about the future of warfare. He describes how warfare in the 21st century will be fought from space on orbital platforms (called Battle Stars--just because it sounds cool) that can coordinate strikes by robotic hypersonic aircraft and infantry in powered suits. These predictions are based on current military research.

His writing style is phenomenal. It is almost conversational but his sentences are well structured into strong paragraphs that are easy to read and follow and understand. He doesn't make his thought process inaccessible: first he explains his methods, and then he writes in a way that makes the mechanics of global politics and grand strategy and economics understandable to the layman.

What I liked most was how this book set the events of the present and recent past into the bigger historical picture. It helped me see how events of the present that seem so catastrophic and important will be insignificant in as little as ten or twenty years. He uses examples from the past. For example, in the opening chapters he explains how the current economic recession is not a unique event in the history of this century but that there were other economic crises, all based on investors thinking that current economic trends would never change. All previous economic crises were solved by government bailouts and were followed by periods of economic growth. He demonstrates that this economic recession is only one of many in the recent past and not an unprecedented crisis.

What I didn't like

Almost nothing. The book got a little boring at times when it focused on the tiny details of future events.

Conclusion

I definitely recommend this book to anyone who's not dead yet. It broadened my understanding of current events in the greater historical picture and identified major trends in history of which I had been unaware. I give it a 4.9/5 Battle Stars.

The Great Hunt by Robert Jordan

Summary

In book one of the long The Wheel of Time series, Rand al'Thor escaped the darkspawn that sought to capture and enslave him and, with the company of his friends, stopped the blinding of the Eye of the World, thereby ensuring that the Dark Lord stayed imprisoned in the mountain of Shayol Ghul.

Sound complicated? That's only the first of, so far, twelve books and the twelfth book is being published in three volumes.

The Great Hunt is book two. It begins a few weeks after the events of book one. Rand al'Thor still won't believe that he's destined to be the Dragon Reborn. Mostly because he doesn't want to be the bad guy who ultimately breaks the world in order to destroy the Dark Lord. He just wants a normal life. But a normal life is just not what he's getting. The love of his life, Egwene is heading off to Tar Valon to become an Aes Sedai (think Lord of the Ring's Gandalf with PMS) and will be unlikely to marry anyone. Especially not him.

Then the fabled Horn of Valere turns up in, of all places, the strong room of Lord Agelmar's castle--Fal Dara--which happens to be where Rand al'Thor and his friends from book one are hanging out. But before Rand even finds out about the Horn, it gets stolen by Darkfriends and Trollocs who take it, not towards the Dark Lord at Shayol Ghul like everyone expects, but in the opposite direction.

So, Rand, thinking that he's taking charge of his own destiny, volunteers to go after the Horn with the hunting party sent by Lord Agelmar. Rand ends up being the Hero who recovers the Horn, and then loses it again. And then goes across the whole continent to find it again at the place where everyone seems to be going these days--Toman's Head. But Legendary Artur Hawkwing's armies have returned with their monsters and leashed magical women and have taken the one city where everything comes to a head. Along for the party are a legion of Whitecloaks, some undercover Aes Sedai, and still more Darkfriends, and maybe even the Dark Lord himself, because what kind of party would it be if he didn't think it was worth crashing? Will it be an adventure to remember? You bet.

What I liked

I liked The Great Hunt more than The Eye of the World. I found it more suspenseful, more adventurous, and a little less dramatic. Where The Eye of the World bogged down with back story (because it was the first of the series, it had plenty of explaining to do) The Great Hunt could zip by with brief summaries and allusions because anyone who read the first book got the bigger picture.

Like in The Eye of the World, there was plenty of well written suspense with a little action thrown in here and there to make it interesting. I found this book even more suspenseful than book one, and I read through it much more quickly as a result.

What I didn't like

Oh the drama. I had a hard time getting some of the characters, they're just so melodramatic. It seemed, in places, like they act and feel only to push the plot ahead. One character is so unrealistically temperamental that her tantrums would embarrass my two year old niece. Mind you, her temper becomes characteristic of her and I could live with that because it's consistent, if a little unrealistic. It's unrealistic because everyone else takes her seriously and nobody really says anything.

It also seems like Robert Jordan takes the hard line on predestination. There is no making your own destiny where The Wheel of Time is concerned. The Wheel of Time is a giant spinning wheel that spins out the threads of destiny. Each life is a thread and the Wheel weaves its own pattern out of those lives. So, no one has a say in their destiny, the Wheel determines everything.

Which kind of takes the fun out of everything. I mean, what's the point of making any decisions at all if destiny will ultimately trump everything you do?

While I'm on it... The whole Dragon thing also seems to suck all the fun out of the story. He's just too powerful and invulnerable that you can't really relate. It's like unleashing a weapon of mass destruction--there's no glory or nobility about it. (There will be no great stories written about the bureaucrats who deploy nuclear missiles.) So, yeah, it's kind of disappointing to get to the climactic battle and have all the suspense leached out of it when the good guys pull out a talisman and win by overkill.

In conclusion...

Nevertheless, the suspense leading up to that battle is well worth the read.

Not my favourite fantasy series by far, but I think I'll keep reading to the end. Here's my recommendation:

If you're looking for a time consuming fantasy series, this may be the thing for you. Those who like it, like it  a lot. I give it 4/5 weapons of mass destruction.

From Dawn to Decadence by Jacques Barzun (Part 2)

This morning I finished reading the third chapter, The Good Letters.

In this chapter, Barzun talks about Humanism. It's a very boring chapter. Mostly he talks about the early humanists who went back to the classics of ancient Greece and Rome. He contrasts these early humanists who appreciated classical art and its expression of humanity to the more modern humanists who deify Man.

The early humanists were not completely secular, though they were accused of being worldly by those who were more devoted to the spiritual existence. Many of these humanists were churchmen, priests of the Catholic church. In the final sections of this chapter, Barzun even introduces a series of humanist popes. Anyways, I'm quite fuzzy on the details in this section because I was only half paying attention and the rest of my mind was wandering because it was so boring.

There was, however, one very interesting part. Barzun wrote about Petrarch, giving a brief history of his life and work. Petrarch is the Italian poet after whom the Petrarchan sonnet is named. He was a priest, at least at first, and he became a great celebrity in Italy and Europe as a poet and orator. I certainly recommend reading this brief section (maybe one or three pages).

So, until next time!

Janelle Talks In Her Sleep

Janelle went to bed as soon as she got home from work, poor thing, she was so tired. I went to bed with her and read to her until she fell asleep. After she fell asleep I kept reading to the end of the chapter. When I finished the chapter, I put the book down, took off my glasses and turned off the lights.

Janelle sat upright in bed and said,
"Patrick...?" in a very sleepy sounding voice.
"Patrick, this is very important, you have to listen to me." She took hold of my hand and squeezed it.
"When I'm talking about the man on the radio, I'm not talking about the man on the radio, I'm talking about being interrupted by the person who turned the radio on."

Confused, I leaned in very close and said, "I'm sorry, what are you saying?"

She started over again, "When I'm talking about the man ..." and she stopped. Then she said, "I hear the laughing meanness in your voice. Get me some warm pajamas, I'm freezing."

Just Another Monday Night In Halifax

So, monday is our (me and janelle) only night off together. since moving in with janelle's parents for the summer, we've decided to make it our date night. it happens to work out quite wonderfully, seeing as we live right smack downtown.

last night, we got up around seven pm and headed to Your Father's Moustache for supper. We had burgers. janelle's was particularly tasty, but i can't remember what it was. mine was really spicy.

afterwards we went to the theater across the street to watch The Killers. it was really funny, but it kept reminding me of Zombieland. in Zombieland, deadly killer zombies pop up everywhere; in The Killers, deadly killer people pop of everywhere. both movies are basically: SURPRISE, WE'RE GOING TO KILL YOU!!!!! but of course, they fail, because it wouldn't be much of a movie if the protagonists died, right.

anyways, after that we went to the economy shoe shop for drinks. it was exceptionally nice. i'd like to make the shoe shop a monday night tradition. then we went home and surfed the interweb, looking for apartments in thunder bay for the fall... because we're moving there.

and then we hit up the 24 hour subway up the street for breakfast as the sun came up. it was super nice.

From Dawn to Decadence by Jacques Barzun (Part 1)

I finished reading the first two chapters, The West Torn Apart and The New Life with Janelle. Janelle and I read this book together and discuss it as we read. I can understand it more this way but we read it much more slowly.

These chapters focus on the Protestant Reformation, which Barzun identifies as the first Revolution of the west. In The West Torn Apart he describes the Protestant Reformation in detail. He draws a very readable character description of Martin Luther as well as a few of the other major players that I really appreciated. He also demonstrated a strong understanding of the theological and philosophical issues of the time. So, reading it I got to see not only what happened but why and how and what the thinking behind this revolution was. I also appreciated the detail that went into the description of the Protestant Reformation. In just twenty or twenty five pages, Barzun gave the best explanation of the Protestant Reformation that I have yet come across.

In The New Life Barzun describes how the Protestant Reformation changed how life was lived in the West. He describes the various new sects of Protestantism and, briefly, their theologies and philosophies. He gives a description of John Calvin and his movement and government and contrasts John Calvin's theology and philosophy to Martin Luther's. Finally, he describes the counter-revolution within the Catholic Church: the eighteen year Council of Trent and the formation of the Jesuit order (The Society of Jesus) by the Spanish soldier, Loyola.

So, it's not the 100 pages or the one week that I promised but I am reading much more slowly than I had anticipated. Also, Janelle and I moved this past week and so, haven't had much time to read. Future updates should come sooner. Also, instead of giving an update every 100 pages, I think I will do it every couple of chapters, like this one, unless I change my mind.

So far, I'm loving it.